OPEC’s oil basket traded at USD 109.3 per barrel on average in July, down 7.3% from the previous month. Meanwhile, the price was 28.0% higher year-to-date and 48.6% higher than the same day last year.
Crude oil prices fell in July amid growing fears of a global recession amid rising inflation and interest rates. The US economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the second quarter, while China’s manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in July due to the flare-ups of Covid-19 and slowing external demand.
In terms of OPEC production, combined crude oil production between members rose to 28.7 mbpd in June, the latest month of data available from OPEC, from 28.5 mbpd in May, mainly reflecting higher production. in Saudi Arabia. The drop in production in Libya dragged on to the press.
Saudi oil production is set to continue growing in the coming months. However, it is unclear whether the August target, set at 11.0 mbpd at the latest OPEC + meeting, will be met. Riyadh claims to have a production capacity of 12.0 mbpd, but the actual figure may be lower. Saudi Arabia has surpassed its OPEC + quota in recent months and OPEC data indicates that oil well drilling activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel members expect oil production in Saudi Arabia to average 10.60 mbpd in 2022. In 2023, our panel of analysts expects crude oil production to rise to 10.99 mbpd.