from Active calculated risk 02/08/2022 10:26:00
The Census Bureau has released the report on residential vacancies and home ownership for the second quarter of 2022.
The results of this survey were significantly skewed by the pandemic in 2020.
This report is often cited by analysts and the media to track family formation, home ownership rate, and home ownership rates and vacancy rates. However, there are serious doubts about the accuracy of this survey.
This poll might show the trend, but I wouldn’t rely on absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn’t use HVS to estimate excess vacancy or house formation, or rely on home ownership rate, except as a trend guide.
National vacancy rates in the second quarter of 2022 were 5.6 per cent for rental housing and 0.8 percent for homeowners’ housing. The vacation rental rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than the second quarter 2021 rate (6.2%) and not statistically different from the first quarter 2022 rate (5.8%).
The vacancy rate of 0.8% was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter of 2021 (0.9%) and practically the same as the rate in the first quarter of 2022 (0.8%).
the home ownership rate of 65.8 percent it was not statistically different from the second quarter 2021 rate (65.4%) and it was not statistically different from the first quarter 2022 rate (65.4%).
Click on the graphic to enlarge the image.
The red dots are the ten-year census home ownership rates for April 1, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The Census Bureau will soon release data for 2020.
The HVS home ownership rate increased to 65.8% in the second quarter, from 65.4% in the first quarter.
Results for the second and third quarters of 2020 were skewed by the pandemic.
Vacancy for HVS homeowners remained unchanged at 0.8% in the second quarter from 0.8% in the first quarter.
Again – this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn’t rely on absolute numbers.
The vacancy rate decreased to 5.6% in the second quarter from 5.8% in the first quarter.
The HVS also has a series on requesting rentals. This has increased since the early stages of the pandemic, like other measures, and has increased by 27% over the past two years. However, required rents only increased 7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022.
Quarterly HVS is the earliest household survey, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.