Economic activity increased 3.3% yoy in June (May: + 4.2% yoy). The June result marked the worst reading since February 2021.
That said, the business has been driven by vehicle trading and repair, manufacturing, real estate and financial services sectors.
EIU analysts added:
“Guatemala’s economic recovery will stabilize later in the forecast period, but in the near term we expect faster GDP growth as the economy reopens and Guatemalans will continue to receive huge inflows of workers’ remittances, mainly from the United States. , where working conditions are still strong. […] Although there are various risks to this perspective. One is that the domestic economy may not be able to sustain these growth rates if the US economy goes into recession in the next couple of years. As the United States is the main market for Guatemalan exports and the main source of remittances, a more marked slowdown than expected would substantially damage Guatemala’s economic activity. Another risk is that rising prices will damage consumers’ purchasing power in the coming months.
GDP is expected to grow 3.6% in 2022. For 2023, our rapporteurs expect the economy to grow 3.1%.