Industrial production fell by 0.4% on a monthly basis in seasonally adjusted terms in June (May: + 0.3% mom). The June figure marked the worst reading since January. Looking at the details of the release, the contraction resulted mainly from the contraction in the production of capital goods and the decline in the production of non-durable consumer goods at a faster pace than the previous month. This more than offset the decrease in intermediate goods production at a more moderate pace in June and the acceleration of consumer goods production.
On an annual basis, industrial production fell by 0.5% in June (May: + 0.5% yoy). Consequently, the trend intensified, with the average annual change in industrial production amounting to minus 2.9%, down from minus 1.9% in May.
FocusEconomics LatinFocus Consensus Forecast speakers see industrial production expanding by 0.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, industrial production is expected to grow by 1.3%.