Economy · July 7, 2022

Calculated risk: Thursday: jobless claims, trade deficit

from Active calculated risk 7/06/2022 21:02:00

• At 8:15 am ET, the ADP employment report for June it will NOT be released.

“ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the” Lab “) have announced that they will reorganize the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust and high-frequency view of the labor market and economic growth trajectory. . In preparation for the transition to the new report and the new methodology, ADPRI will suspend the issuance of this report and will target August 31, 2022 … “

• At 8:30, the initial weekly unemployment claims the report will be released. The consensus is 225 thousand, down from 231 thousand last week.

• Then at 8:30, Trade balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that the trade deficit is $ 84.9 billion. The US trade deficit was $ 87.1 billion the previous month.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID metrics
Now Week
Percentage fully vaccinated 66.9% ≥70.0%1
Fully vaccinated (millions) 222.3 ≥2321
New cases a day3 106.178 108,391 ≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩 28.101 26,543 ≤3,0002
Deaths a day3 267 34 ≤502
1 Minimum to obtain “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
3Average of 7 days for cases, currently hospitalized and deaths
🚩 Increase in 7-day weekly average for cases, hospitalized and deaths

✅ Objective achieved.

Positive COVID-19 tests per dayClick on the graphic to enlarge the image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day (line) mean of reported deaths.

Average daily deaths hit a low in July 2021 at 214 per day.