Headline CPI flat (below +0.1% consensus), and core CPI inflation at 0.2% (below +0.3% consensus). Here are some pictures of central tendency, trend:
Figure 1: Headline CPI inflation, y/y (blue), core CPI inflation y/y (tan), trimmed mean CPI inflation m/m ann’d (tan), median CPI inflation m/m ann’d (pink), headline CPI instantaneous, T=12, a=4 per Eeckhout (bold red), all in %. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) is now at 3.2%. The implied CPI target conforming to 2% PCE inflation is about 2.45% (0.45 is the difference between CPI and PCE inflation over the 1986-2019 period), so instantaneous inflation is about 0.75 ppts above target.
BLS supercore y/y inflation at 2.8%. Everything you wanted to know about core services ex shelter inflation, see Pawel Skrzypczynski’s website. y/y right now at 3.9%.
Addendum:
Additional rate hike next meeting off the table. From CME FedWatch:
And 10 year Treasury yields, from TradingEconomics.
